1. It probably came as no surprise to most New Yorkers that the nation had officially slipped into a recession by spring, or that the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11 knocked the wobbly legs out from under an already shaky economy. 2. From Wall Street to Kew Gardens, the pain has been palpable. Just as nearly every resident of the city and surrounding area knew someone who lost a life in the World Trade Center, most know someone who has been directly affected by its economic aftermath dislocations, pay cuts and job losses. 3. That giant sucking sound It is the gasp of collective belt-tightening across the five boroughs. Statistics confirm the anecdotes. New York City lost 44,200 jobs just in October, the New York State Labor Department said. It could lose 50,000 more by mid-2002. 4. Economists and accountants have tried to tally the damage stemming from the attack, and though their figures do not always match, the costs are undeniably substantial. In addition to the physical damage and cleanup expenses estimated at $30 billion, the attacks could cost New York City some $20 billion in lost economic activity like retail sales and tourism services this year and $10 billion more next year, according to Economy.com, a research firm based in West Chester, Pa. The $20 billion pledged by the federal government in emergency aid and billions more in insurance payments will help offset those costs, though only about half the federal assistance has actually been appropriated. A sharp falloff in tax revenue, however, will leave the state and city with yawning budget gaps not seen since the early 1990s. The city alone projects a shortfall of $1.3 billion next 5 year and $3.6 billion in 2003. 5. That will keep New York's prospects dim even if the national economy emerges from recession, as economists predict it will in the second half of 2002. New York, they said, will endure a deeper and more protracted downturn than the rest of the country will feel. The gross city product, a measure of the city's economic output, declined 1.6 percent in the third quarter, compared with a 0.4 percent fall for the nation as a whole. 6. Some economists compare the situation in New York to that of cities hit by natural disasters, like Hurricane Andrew in 1992 or the earthquake in Kobe, Japan, in 1995. Initial slumps were followed by building booms that led to revived economies, said Stephen Kagann, chief economist for Gov. George E. Pataki's office. 7. New York, however, will not be helped by a building boom, he said. Rebuilding the World Trade Center, as huge as such a project would be, is unlikely to have a significant impact on the economy, Mr. Kagann said. The original construction had 3,500 jobs at its peak, with maybe 1,500 more ancillary jobs created together, only 0.2 percent of all jobs in the region. "The city's economy is simply too large for rebuilding to be a significant boost," he said.
1. It probably came as no surprise to most New Yorkers that the nation had officially slipped into a recession by spring, or that the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11 knocked the wobbly legs out from under an already shaky economy.
2. From Wall Street to Kew Gardens, the pain has been palpable. Just as nearly every resident of the city and surrounding area knew someone who lost a life in the World Trade Center, most know someone who has been directly affected by its economic aftermath dislocations, pay cuts and job losses.
3. That giant sucking sound It is the gasp of collective belt-tightening across the five boroughs. Statistics confirm the anecdotes. New York City lost 44,200 jobs just in October, the New York State Labor Department said. It could lose 50,000 more by mid-2002.
4. Economists and accountants have tried to tally the damage stemming from the attack, and though their figures do not always match, the costs are undeniably substantial. In addition to the physical damage and cleanup expenses estimated at $30 billion, the attacks could cost New York City some $20 billion in lost economic activity like retail sales and tourism services this year and $10 billion more next year, according to Economy.com, a research firm based in West Chester, Pa. The $20 billion pledged by the federal government in emergency aid and billions more in insurance payments will help offset those costs, though only about half the federal assistance has actually been appropriated. A sharp falloff in tax revenue, however, will leave the state and city with yawning budget gaps not seen since the early 1990s. The city alone projects a shortfall of $1.3 billion next 5 year and $3.6 billion in 2003.
5. That will keep New York's prospects dim even if the national economy emerges from recession, as economists predict it will in the second half of 2002. New York, they said, will endure a deeper and more protracted downturn than the rest of the country will feel. The gross city product, a measure of the city's economic output, declined 1.6 percent in the third quarter, compared with a 0.4 percent fall for the nation as a whole.
6. Some economists compare the situation in New York to that of cities hit by natural disasters, like Hurricane Andrew in 1992 or the earthquake in Kobe, Japan, in 1995. Initial slumps were followed by building booms that led to revived economies, said Stephen Kagann, chief economist for Gov. George E. Pataki's office.
7. New York, however, will not be helped by a building boom, he said. Rebuilding the World Trade Center, as huge as such a project would be, is unlikely to have a significant impact on the economy, Mr. Kagann said. The original construction had 3,500 jobs at its peak, with maybe 1,500 more ancillary jobs created together, only 0.2 percent of all jobs in the region. "The city's economy is simply too large for rebuilding to be a significant boost," he said.
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